With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s decade-long rule nearing its end in Haryana, the Congress is poised to make a comeback, potentially establishing the next government in the state, according to the latest exit polls. This marks a significant shift in the political landscape of Haryana, where the BJP had held power for two consecutive terms. Meanwhile, in Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress, in alliance with the National Conference (NC), may hold a competitive edge, although a hung assembly seems likely due to the highly fragmented voter base.
Congress Comeback in Haryana: A Major Shift in Power
Based on the exit polls, the Congress is expected to win 55 of the 90 seats in the Haryana Legislative Assembly, comfortably surpassing the majority mark of 45. This result would end the BJP’s ten-year reign in the state, marking a significant political shift. The average of seven exit polls indicates a resounding victory for Congress, which managed to perform far better than anticipated in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.
Haryana’s political dynamics have been complex in recent years, with the BJP riding high on a combination of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and regional development initiatives. However, rising concerns over agrarian distress, unemployment, and caste dynamics seem to have swung the electorate in favor of the Congress, which capitalized on these issues during its campaign. Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who is seen as the face of Congress in Haryana, played a pivotal role in consolidating voter support, especially in rural areas.
This result not only signals a return to power for Congress in the state but also serves as a prelude to the party’s broader national ambitions as it seeks to challenge the BJP at the central level. The Congress is riding a wave of optimism after its relatively strong performance in the Lok Sabha elections, where it defied expectations in several key states.
The Jammu and Kashmir Conundrum: Coalition Politics on the Horizon
In Jammu and Kashmir, where elections were held for the first time in a decade following the bifurcation and reorganization of the state, a more fragmented outcome is expected. The Congress-National Conference alliance is projected to win 43 seats out of the 90-member assembly. However, this is three seats short of the majority mark, suggesting that no party or coalition will secure a clear mandate.
This predicted outcome reflects the complexity of Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape, where regional parties, religious and ethnic divisions, and local issues play an outsized role compared to national politics. The Congress-NC alliance has historically enjoyed strong support in the Kashmir Valley, while the BJP has a solid voter base in the Jammu region. Delimitation has further reshaped electoral boundaries, making this election particularly competitive.
BJP’s Decline and Potential Spoilers
Despite its robust presence in Jammu and a concerted effort to make inroads in Kashmir, the BJP is expected to win only 27 seats in the newly delimited Jammu and Kashmir assembly, according to exit polls. This falls significantly short of a majority, leaving the party with limited options to form a government unless it secures post-poll alliances with smaller parties or independent candidates. However, the scattered nature of the vote means that even cobbling together a coalition may prove difficult.
The BJP’s ten-year rule in Haryana appears to be drawing to a close, with the exit polls predicting a defeat. In one of the exit polls conducted by Jist-TIF Research, the BJP was predicted to win a maximum of 37 seats, which still places them behind Congress in the overall count. The saffron party, which was banking on Modi’s charisma and its record of development, seems to have fallen short in the face of local discontent.
Moreover, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has seen tremendous success in neighboring Delhi and Punjab, seems unable to establish a foothold in Haryana. Exit polls suggest that the AAP may not secure any significant number of seats in this election, despite its efforts to expand its influence across the country. AAP’s failure to break through in Haryana could be seen as a temporary setback for a party that is otherwise growing in stature at the national level.
Regional Players and Their Impact
Other regional parties such as the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), led by Abhay Chautala, are also expected to play minor roles in Haryana. Exit polls predict that INLD may secure two seats, while the Janata Party, a former ally of the BJP, is likely to gain one seat. While these numbers may seem small, they could become crucial if the final seat tally ends up closer than expected, and coalition negotiations come into play.
In Jammu and Kashmir, smaller parties and independents could hold the key to government formation in the event of a hung assembly. With the Congress-NC alliance falling just short of a majority, these players may hold significant bargaining power. The BJP, too, could look to these groups to help bridge the gap in seats, though this remains a distant possibility based on current projections.
Conclusion: A Test for Exit Poll Accuracy
While the exit polls provide an early glimpse into the possible outcomes, it is important to note that they are not always accurate. Past elections have seen considerable deviation between exit poll predictions and final results. Therefore, while the Congress may be celebrating its projected win in Haryana and eyeing coalition politics in Jammu and Kashmir, the final results could still surprise.
As election results unfold, the political fate of both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir will not only determine the immediate future of these states but also have wider implications for the national political landscape. The Congress’s resurgence could set the tone for the 2024 general elections, where the party hopes to pose a formidable challenge to the BJP’s dominance.
Reference by NDTV
Author:NTNdevelopersHome
