Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024
Exit polls suggest the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised for a victory in Maharashtra, though pollsters remain divided over the final outcome. Of the nine exit polls analyzed:
- Three polls predict a hung assembly.
- Four polls lean towards a win for the ruling BJP+ alliance.
- Two polls avoid a clear prediction, presenting varied margins for both sides.
The aggregate numbers show the NDA’s Mahayuti—comprising Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, and the BJP—potentially winning 150 seats. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—a coalition of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, and the Congress—may secure 125 seats. With 288 seats in total, the majority mark is 145.Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024
Maharashtra’s political landscape has been especially volatile, shaped by a government collapse and intra-party splits in Shiv Sena and NCP over the last two years. These factors have left voters and analysts grappling with uncertainty, making predictions challenging.
Jharkhand Assembly Election 2024
Jharkhand, ruled by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress alliance, presents an equally complex picture. The exit polls are sharply divided:
- Three polls predict the ruling alliance will retain power.
- Three polls suggest the NDA could wrest control.
Aggregated data indicates the NDA might fall just short of the majority mark of 41 seats, potentially securing 39 seats. Meanwhile, the INDIA alliance, comprising the JMM and Congress, is close behind with 38 seats.
Why the Divergence in Predictions?
The varied predictions reflect the political turmoil and fluid alliances that have characterized both states:
- In Maharashtra, a fractured Shiv Sena and NCP added layers of complexity.
- In Jharkhand, a polarized electorate has made the fight unpredictable, leaving pollsters split on the outcome.
Adding to the uncertainty is the history of exit polls getting it wrong. For instance, in last month’s Haryana elections, the results defied most exit poll predictions.
Refrence by NDTV
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